[Prevscilist] Fwd: Choirs and COVID-19 and a social distancing pep talk

[Atika Khurana]

A forward message from Dr. Benedict McWhirter with a reminder of why 
social distancing is so critical.

Hope you all are doing well.

-------- Forwarded Message --------

Greetings all.
Betsy Meredith used to be our Lane County Director of public health. She 
got us through the H1N1 epidemic a few years ago.
I thought you’d like the science of this.
Benedict


> ---------- Forwarded message ------
> From: *Betsy Meredith*
>
> I hope you are all well, not going stir crazy, and finding ways to 
> sing and give praise during this challenging time.  This is a little 
> public health update that is specific to those of us in choirs and for 
> any and all who are missing the camaraderie of gathering with others 
> outside our immediate family.
>
> https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-03-29/coronavirus-choir-outbreak 
> <https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-03-29/coronavirus-choir-outbreak__;!!C5qS4YX3!SSHxfuzaB1V-CiRkM8zaH5QZ0Z1dO8knEqqdhvGfcRAwLZSzt4Wd2w4aRksc3oR2cg$> 
>
>
> I've also copied some information and advice that helps to keep 
> perspective on the measurable importance of this prolonged social 
> distancing.
>
> This is a statement from an epidemiologist at Dartmouth Hitchcock 
> Medical Center.  (I added the bold to a few of the key statements and 
> important visuals)
>
> Please share widely.
>
> * * *
>
> /Hey everybody, as an infectious disease epidemiologist, at this point 
> feel morally obligated to provide some information on what we are 
> seeing from a transmission dynamic perspective and how they apply to 
> the social distancing measures. Like any good scientist I have noticed 
> two things that are either not articulated or not present in the 
> "literature" of social media./
>
> /Specifically, I want to make two aspects of these measures very clear 
> and unambiguous./
>
> /First, we are in the very infancy of this epidemic's trajectory. That 
> means even with these measures we will see cases and deaths continue 
> to rise globally, nationally, and in our own communities in the coming 
> weeks. Our hospitals will be overwhelmed, and people will die that 
> didn't have to. This may lead some people to think that the social 
> distancing measures are not working. They are. They may feel futile. 
> They aren't. You will feel discouraged. You should. This is normal in 
> chaos. But this is also normal epidemic trajectory. Stay calm. This 
> enemy that we are facing is very good at what it does; we are not 
> failing. We need everyone to hold the line as the epidemic inevitably 
> gets worse. This is not my opinion; this is the unforgiving math of 
> epidemics for which I and my colleagues have dedicated our lives to 
> understanding with great nuance, and this disease is no exception. We 
> know what will happen; I want to help the community brace for this 
> impact. Stay strong and with solidarity knowing with absolute 
> certainty that what you are doing is saving lives, even as people 
> begin getting sick and dying. You may feel like giving in. Don't. 
> Second, although social distancing measures have been (at least 
> temporarily) well-received, there is an obvious-but-overlooked 
> phenomenon when considering groups (i.e. families) in transmission 
> dynamics. While social distancing decreases contact with members of 
> society, it of course increases your contacts with group (i.e. family) 
> members. This small and obvious fact has surprisingly profound 
> implications on disease transmission dynamics. Study after study 
> demonstrates that even if there is only a little bit of connection 
> between groups (i.e. social dinners, playdates/playgrounds, etc.), the 
> epidemic trajectory isn't much different than if there was no measure 
> in place. The same underlying fundamentals of disease transmission 
> apply, and the result is that the community is left with all of the 
> social and economic disruption but very little public health benefit. 
> You should perceive your entire family to function as a single 
> individual unit; if one person puts themselves at risk, everyone in 
> the unit is at risk. Seemingly small social chains get large and 
> complex with alarming speed. I*f your son visits his girlfriend, and 
> you later sneak over for coffee with a neighbor, your neighbor is now 
> connected to the infected office worker that your son's girlfriend's 
> mother shook hands with. This sounds silly, it's not. This is not a 
> joke or a hypothetical. We as epidemiologists see it borne out in the 
> data time and time again* and no one listens. *Conversely, any break 
> in that chain breaks disease transmission along that chain.*/
>
> /In contrast to hand-washing and other personal measures, social 
> distancing measures are not about individuals, they are about 
> societies working in unison. These measures also take a long time to 
> see the results. *It is hard (even for me) to conceptualize how 'one 
> quick little get together' can undermine the entire framework of a 
> public health intervention, but it does. I promise you it does. I 
> promise. I promise. I promise. You can't cheat it. People are already 
> itching to cheat on the social distancing precautions just a "little"- 
> a playdate, a haircut, or picking up a needless item at the store, 
> etc. From a transmission dynamics standpoint, this very quickly 
> recreates a highly connected social network that undermines all of the 
> work the community has done so far.*/
>
> /Until we get a viable vaccine this unprecedented outbreak will not be 
> overcome in grand, sweeping gesture, rather only by the collection of 
> individual choices our community makes in the coming months. This 
> virus is unforgiving to unwise choices./
>
> /My goal in writing this is to prevent communities from getting 
> 'sucker-punched' by what the epidemiological community knows will 
> happen in the coming weeks. It will be easy to be drawn to the idea 
> that what we are doing isn't working and become paralyzed by fear, or 
> to 'cheat' a little bit in the coming weeks. By knowing what to 
> expect, and knowing the importance of maintaining these measures, my 
> hope is to encourage continued community spirit, strategizing, and 
> action to persevere in this time of uncertainty./ //
> /
> /
> **************************
> One thing I am grateful for at this time is the way people are 
> reaching out to one another - especially virtually.  Who knew a Zoom 
> account was an essential?!
>
> Sending love and prayers for all
>
> Betsy Meredith
>
>
>
>
> /
> /
>
> -- 
> ___________________________________
> Benedict T. McWhirter, Ph.D.
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