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<p>A forward message from Dr. Benedict McWhirter with a reminder of
why social distancing is so critical. <br>
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<div class="moz-forward-container">Hope you all are doing well. <br>
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Greetings all.
<div>Betsy Meredith used to be our Lane County Director of public
health. She got us through the H1N1 epidemic a few years ago. </div>
<div>I thought you’d like the science of this. </div>
<div>Benedict </div>
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Forwarded message ------<br>
From: <strong class="gmail_sendername" dir="auto">Betsy
Meredith</strong></div>
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<div style="font-size:12pt;font-family:helvetica,arial,sans-serif;color:#333333">I
hope you are all well, not going stir crazy, and
finding ways to sing and give praise during this
challenging time. This is a little public
health update that is specific to those of us in
choirs and for any and all who are missing the
camaraderie of gathering with others outside our
immediate family.</div>
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<div style="font-size:12pt;font-family:helvetica,arial,sans-serif;color:#333333"><a href="https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-03-29/coronavirus-choir-outbreak__;!!C5qS4YX3!SSHxfuzaB1V-CiRkM8zaH5QZ0Z1dO8knEqqdhvGfcRAwLZSzt4Wd2w4aRksc3oR2cg$" target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true">https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-03-29/coronavirus-choir-outbreak</a>
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<div style="font-size:12pt;font-family:helvetica,arial,sans-serif;color:#333333">I've
also copied some information and advice that
helps to keep perspective on the measurable
importance of this prolonged social
distancing.
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<div style="font-size:12pt;font-family:helvetica,arial,sans-serif;color:#333333">
<div>This is a statement from an epidemiologist
at Dartmouth Hitchcock Medical Center. (I
added the bold to a few of the key statements
and important visuals)
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<div>Please share widely. </div>
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<div>* * * </div>
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<div><span style="color:rgb(0,0,128)"><em>Hey
everybody, as an infectious disease
epidemiologist, at this point feel morally
obligated to provide some information on
what we are seeing from a transmission
dynamic perspective and how they apply to
the social distancing measures. Like any
good scientist I have noticed two things
that are either not articulated or not
present in the "literature" of social
media.</em></span>
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<div><span style="color:rgb(0,0,128)"><em>Specifically,
I want to make two aspects of these
measures very clear and unambiguous.</em></span>
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<div><span style="color:rgb(0,0,128)"><em>First,
we are in the very infancy of this
epidemic's trajectory. That means even
with these measures we will see cases and
deaths continue to rise globally,
nationally, and in our own communities in
the coming weeks. Our hospitals will be
overwhelmed, and people will die that
didn't have to. This may lead some people
to think that the social distancing
measures are not working. They are. They
may feel futile. They aren't. You will
feel discouraged. You should. This is
normal in chaos. But this is also normal
epidemic trajectory. Stay calm. This enemy
that we are facing is very good at what it
does; we are not failing. We need everyone
to hold the line as the epidemic
inevitably gets worse. This is not my
opinion; this is the unforgiving math of
epidemics for which I and my colleagues
have dedicated our lives to understanding
with great nuance, and this disease is no
exception. We know what will happen; I
want to help the community brace for this
impact. Stay strong and with solidarity
knowing with absolute certainty that what
you are doing is saving lives, even as
people begin getting sick and dying. You
may feel like giving in. Don't. Second,
although social distancing measures have
been (at least temporarily) well-received,
there is an obvious-but-overlooked
phenomenon when considering groups (i.e.
families) in transmission dynamics. While
social distancing decreases contact with
members of society, it of course increases
your contacts with group (i.e. family)
members. This small and obvious fact has
surprisingly profound implications on
disease transmission dynamics. Study after
study demonstrates that even if there is
only a little bit of connection between
groups (i.e. social dinners,
playdates/playgrounds, etc.), the epidemic
trajectory isn't much different than if
there was no measure in place. The same
underlying fundamentals of disease
transmission apply, and the result is that
the community is left with all of the
social and economic disruption but very
little public health benefit. You should
perceive your entire family to function as
a single individual unit; if one person
puts themselves at risk, everyone in the
unit is at risk. Seemingly small social
chains get large and complex with alarming
speed. I<strong>f your son visits his
girlfriend, and you later sneak over for
coffee with a neighbor, your neighbor is
now connected to the infected office
worker that your son's girlfriend's
mother shook hands with. This sounds
silly, it's not. This is not a joke or a
hypothetical. We as epidemiologists see
it borne out in the data time and time
again</strong> and no one listens. <strong>
Conversely, any break in that chain
breaks disease transmission along that
chain.</strong></em></span>
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<div><span style="color:rgb(0,0,128)"><em>In
contrast to hand-washing and other
personal measures, social distancing
measures are not about individuals, they
are about societies working in unison.
These measures also take a long time to
see the results.
<strong>It is hard (even for me) to
conceptualize how 'one quick little get
together' can undermine the entire
framework of a public health
intervention, but it does. I promise you
it does. I promise. I promise. I
promise. You can't cheat it. People are
already itching to cheat on the social
distancing precautions just a "little"-
a playdate, a haircut, or picking up a
needless item at the store, etc. From a
transmission dynamics standpoint, this
very quickly recreates a highly
connected social network that undermines
all of the work the community has done
so far.</strong></em></span> </div>
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<div><span style="color:rgb(0,0,128)"><em>Until
we get a viable vaccine this unprecedented
outbreak will not be overcome in grand,
sweeping gesture, rather only by the
collection of individual choices our
community makes in the coming months. This
virus is unforgiving to unwise choices.</em></span>
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<div><span style="color:rgb(0,0,128)"><em>My
goal in writing this is to prevent
communities from getting 'sucker-punched'
by what the epidemiological community
knows will happen in the coming weeks. It
will be easy to be drawn to the idea that
what we are doing isn't working and become
paralyzed by fear, or to 'cheat' a little
bit in the coming weeks. By knowing what
to expect, and knowing the importance of
maintaining these measures, my hope is to
encourage continued community spirit,
strategizing, and action to persevere in
this time of uncertainty.</em></span> <span style="color:rgb(0,0,128)">
<em></em></span></div>
<div><span style="color:rgb(0,0,128)"><em><br>
</em></span></div>
<div><span style="color:rgb(51,51,51)">**************************</span>
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<div><span style="color:rgb(51,51,51)">One thing
I am grateful for at this time is the way
people are reaching out to one another -
especially virtually. Who knew a Zoom
account was an essential?!</span>
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<div><span style="color:rgb(51,51,51)">Sending
love and prayers for all</span></div>
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<div><span style="color:rgb(51,51,51)"><br>
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<div><span style="color:rgb(51,51,51)">Betsy
Meredith</span> </div>
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<div dir="ltr"><span style="font-family:garamond,serif">___________________________________<br>
Benedict T. McWhirter, Ph.D.</span></div>
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